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Archive for the ‘Polling and Surveys’ Category

The 7-Eleven Election ’08

In Election 2008, Fun Stuff, Polling and Surveys on October 20, 2008 at 12:14 pm

Did you know that you can participate in the 7-Eleven Election?

The convenience store chain is conducting a 7-Election presidential coffee cup poll, which gives coffee drinkers their choice of a red 20-ounce cup for John McCain or a blue 20-ounce cup for Barack Obama.

Currently, Barack Obama is leading the 7-Eleven polls 60% to 40% for John McCain.

Scanned votes are reported weekly in USA Today. The latest results can be viewed at 7-Election.com. Drink up and cast your opinion at the same time. 😉

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POLL: If the election were held today, who would you cast your ballot for?

In Election 2008, Politics, Polling and Surveys on October 17, 2008 at 12:56 pm

Obama Couldn’t Get the Catholic Vote in Pennsylvania

In Barack Obama, Democracy, Democrats, Election 2008, Hillary Clinton, Politics, Polling and Surveys, Religion on April 28, 2008 at 11:27 pm

The Pew Research released their findings of Catholic voters and candidate choice during the Pennsylvania Presidential Primary.

It shouldn’t be by anyone’s surprise that the exit polls showed Clinton winning the Catholic vote while Obama did well with the African American vote.

According to the Pew Research:

( in the exit polls), Clinton did very well with white Catholics, winning 72% of their vote. She also did well with white Protestants and Jews, winning 59% and 61% of their votes, respectively.

As in the past, Obama did very well with African Americans, most of whom are Protestants, winning 90% of their vote. He also won 62% of the religiously unaffiliated vote. Obama generally did well with non-whites and with religious minorities as well.

Were there any big surprises in the results?

The big surprise was how little change there was in the support for the candidates among religious groups despite the fierce campaigning in the state, which included extensive outreach to the Catholic community. Obama, for example, received strong support from Sen. Bob Casey, a popular Catholic politician. Some analysts expected the “Casey Democrats” to shift toward Obama and help him break into the white Catholic vote, but this didn’t really happen.

This result is reminiscent of the inability of Ted Kennedy to deliver white Catholics to Obama in the Massachusetts primary. All told, Clinton’s outreach to Catholics appears to have been more effective than Obama’s — but the same could also be said about her outreach to other faith groups.

Do we know why white Catholic voters have been choosing Clinton over Obama?

Not exactly. But the exit polls and other data reveal that the economy was the most important issue to Pennsylvania Democrats. We know that Catholic organizations, such as Catholics United, Catholics in Alliance for the Common Good and Catholics for the Common Good, have been emphasizing the theme of “the common good” in Pennsylvania and elsewhere. Clinton’s speeches on the economy, which include long lists of specific policy proposals, may well have boosted her standing among the state’s Catholics who share these concerns. She also likely benefited from memories of the more prosperous economy during her husband’s administration.

So does Obama have a serious problem attracting Catholic voters nationally?

From the point of view of the primaries, it appears that he does. The Obama campaign has made a strong effort to deal with this problem but has had only limited success so far.

Could this problem persist in the general election if Obama is the Democratic nominee? It might, and, if so, it would pose a challenge for Obama in battleground states like Pennsylvania, Ohio and Michigan. We should keep in mind, however, that many of the Democratic Catholics who did not vote for Obama in the primaries might well support him in the fall against John McCain. But on the other hand, not all white Catholics are Democrats — many are independents or Republicans. If nothing else, this means that white Catholics are a key group to watch.

To be fair, one might also ask if Clinton has an “African American problem” or an “unaffiliated problem.” After all, she has not done well with these groups in the primaries, and she will need strong support from these voters in the fall if she is her party’s nominee. One substantial difference, however, is that black Protestants and unaffiliated voters tend to be more strongly Democratic in their partisanship than white Catholics, so it might be easier for Clinton to rally them.

Read the full report about Obama’s Catholic Vote Problem here.

Sen. Clinton Victory in Pennsylvania

In Barack Obama, Democracy, Democrats, Election 2008, Hillary Clinton, Politics, Polling and Surveys on April 22, 2008 at 10:19 pm

As of this posting (10:19pm CST), CNN is reporting Sen. Hillary Clinton the victor in the Pennsylvania primary, 10 points ahead of Sen. Barack Obama and 88% of the precincts reporting.

The exit polls were already showing a sharp division per CNN:

Exit polls indicated that Philadelphia and its suburbs made up more than 30 percent of the vote, and those boxes were tilted heavily toward Obama. But Clinton supporters turned out heavily in Pittsburgh and the counties of western Pennsylvania, and she was racking up similarly lopsided margins in the state’s industrial northeast, those surveys found.

Clinton was expected to clench the blue collar workers while Obama drew in the college vote. The Democratic electorate in Pennsylvania includes more college-educated voters — a voting bloc that has reliably supported Obama.

The exit polls (2,217 respondents) also showed 59% of voters were women and 41% men. 52% of the males were for Obama and 57% of the females were for Sen. Clinton. Looks like in Pennsylvania the men stuck with the male candidate and the women stayed with the female candidate.

Voters under 40 years old were for Obama; over 40 for Clinton.

David Paul Kuhn of The Politico gives his explanation for how Clinton pulled off Pennsylvania.

Have You Flip-Flopped Your Choice For the Democratic Nomination?

In Barack Obama, Democracy, Democrats, Election 2008, Hillary Clinton, Politics, Polling and Surveys on April 9, 2008 at 12:13 am

You’re not the only one. I went back and forth, only deciding the month before we went to the polls. Gallup released their findings today stating that 1 in 4 Democrats have switched candidate choice at least once. The report also shows that support for Sen. Obama has increased since the start of the primary season in January. 19% of all Democrats and Democratic leaners — have moved out of Clinton’s ranks and into Obama’s, while 7% have taken the reverse path, switching from Obama to Clinton per their report.

Despite the cumulative amount of change in the Democratic race since January, only 26% of Democrats indicate they have changed their preference from one of the top two candidates to the other. Most appear to be steadfast in their support for either Clinton or Obama.

Obama has been in front, with his lead over Clinton reaching 10 points (52% vs. 42%) in late March.

Should be interesting to watch is these numbers tighten again after the debate on the 16th.